Legault’s CAQ asked voters to look at its “record” in 2022. That may become more decisive in second term. Ford’s Conservatives face similar challenges.
In autumn, there’s a back-to-school season and a new political year. Both are known in French as “la rentrée”. The Canadian politics rentrée in 2023-24 will feature several leaders whose report cards are already coming due.
Justin Trudeau obviously, but also two premiers, François Legault and Doug Ford, whose second terms may be more difficult than anyone expected.
Ford and Legault are an unlikely pair, but with many similarities. Each was elected premier in 2018 after a long period of Liberal dominance in his province, then was re-elected in 2022. Each leader crushed the provincial Liberal Party, now a shadow of its former self and struggling to remain a credible opposition force.
Both were outsiders. Ford was decried as a populist invading the Conservative establishment in Ontario. Memories of his brother Rob’s calamitous rule as mayor of Toronto remained fresh. Meanwhile, Legault abandoned his old party, the PQ, renounced its referendum obsession, and piloted an entirely new party to power.
Both Ford and Legault benefited politically from Covid lockdowns; during a crisis they were granted unlimited free media, a vacant legislature and widespread public sympathy.
Their appeal is heavily regional, a pale-blue conservative vote anchored among smaller-city and rural citizens who felt neglected by decision-makers. Both leaders exasperate metropolitan elites and centrist voters, who are embarrassed by their popularity.
Finally, each has a lax attitude toward ethical issues, tolerating ministerial misbehaviour that draws fire from ethics commissioners and the media.
The new premiers met in 2019 to lobby the federal government on finances, immigration and health care. “The priority for Mr. Ford and me is the economy,” stated Legault. While pressuring the feds, both have been famously unprincipled about constitutional norms. As the Toronto Star notes, “When Legault proclaims his use of the notwithstanding clause to override the Charter of Rights, Ford dares not second-guess him — because Ontario’s premier tried it first”, in his law to radically reorganize Toronto’s municipal government.
Second-term troubles
In their second terms, Ford and Legault appear vulnerable to troubles that they might have sailed past in earlier years.
Legault got a shock after his re-election in fall 2022 when the promised “troisième lien” for Quebec City — a third cross-river commuter link, likely a tunnel — turned into a fiasco. The cancellation of a multi-level tunnel project meant that “unbreakable” campaign promises by Quebec-area CAQ deputies were dropped with a bang. Key local MNAs, including Education minister Bernard Drainville, were suddenly vulnerable and looked foolish.
A byelection in suburban Quebec City riding Jean-Talon is coming in October. This riding, historically Liberal, was carried twice by the CAQ. Its MNA resigned (“I am sure the 3rd link that was PROMISED has everything to do with her choice”, posted one angry commentator).
The PQ has grabbed this commuter issue and is making noise. (The provincial Conservatives have curiously declined to run in their electoral heartland.) A defeat of the CAQ in this byelection might signal that, even if the party’s approval rating remains high, it is vulnerable.
In Ontario, the parallel Big Scandal has been the Ford government’s decision to free up some land around Toronto from greenbelt restrictions to build single-family homes. This real-estate deal has been pummelled by the media and the province’s auditor general as very dubious.
The Ontario Provincial Police decided to recuse itself from any investigation of the minister and, perhaps, of Ford himself, referring the issue to the RCMP. This could turn toxic for the Tories. Any honeymoon period for Ford is long past.
Opposition starts to rally
In Quebec, efforts to relaunch the Liberal Party have started, but with no leader.
Former MNA Robert Libman, in his Montreal Gazette column, called for a quick leadership race — not just a Liberal “revival” committee touring the province. He urged Liberals to stress their difference: they need to stand out as federalists and pro-business, and not join a chorus dictated by Montreal media.
A Liberal recovery is not impossible. They have returned from the dead before, notably in 1985. Their opponents have low ceilings – the QSolidaire vote is very young and left of the mainstream, while the PQ enjoys no sovereigntist enthusiasm; that option now polls negative with Quebec voters.
In its second term, the CAQ might also feel centrifugal forces.
Matthieu Bock-Côté, a vociferously pro-independence columnist, stressed recently in the Journal de Montreal that the CAQ is a one-man show; Legault’s name is even engraved in the party constitution. Should he stumble, divergent elements could pull it apart.
Several members of the CAQ Cabinet, argues Bock-Côté, have no party loyalty except following Legault: “What does Eric Girard, who dreams of being Conservative minister of Finance in Ottawa, have in common with Christine Fréchette, who objectively would be happier in the Liberal Party of Canada than in a nationalist party? Or with Bernard Drainville, who at bottom remains a convinced indépendantiste? … The answer, in two words: François Legault.”
He might add that Legault has tolerated the self-serving behaviour of his Industry minister, Pierre Fitzgibbon, who does not seem able to distinguish between government business and spending weekends with investors receiving grants. This blind spot has made him subject to six ethics investigations.
Third terms for Quebec governments are still unusual. In the late 20th century, they were unheard-of — the Liberals and PQ alternated, two terms then out. Since 2000, that pattern has changed, with the PQ then the Charest Liberals winning a third term, followed by an 18-month mini-mandate for the Marois PQ, then a single term for the Couillard-Barrette Liberals.
The CAQ government is finally facing some voter fatigue among francophones. Anglos of course are cheering for its downfall.
This fatigue will inevitably grow over the years with “usure du pouvoir”. But any more misadventures could provoke a CAQ decline sooner than any pundits forecast.
First published in Sherbrooke Record weekend supplement, Sept 1, 2023
