Have we seen this movie before? A restless Quebec electorate tires of a government after a couple of terms. The beleaguered party leader struggles against the new tides of opinion. Then comes the election, and voilà – a brand-new government.
These are the cycles of Quebec politics, both provincial and federal: successive waves of red, blue, orange and light-blue party support. New parties are formed, rise, quickly grow, then get bounced.
Liberals and PQ alternated for decades in Quebec City. Then the CAQ upset the checkerboard.
Historically, this is quite new. Provincial parties in Canada often used to stay in power for decades. The Union Nationale of Maurice Duplessis retained power for almost two decades, totalling 18 years before 1960. (In Ontario, the Conservatives governed for 42 straight years, from 1943 to 1985.)
By contrast, the last two Liberal and PQ governments were each kicked out after just one term. Maybe it’s the caffeinated effect of new media— voters are often impatient for change.
CAQ’s many failures
In 2018 the Coalition Avenir Québec was elected. Ostensibly pragmatic, the CAQ proposed to move past federalist-sovereigntist debates and focus on practical matters. Health care, for example.
But after six years in power, there’s been no progress on that front. The CAQ’s latest initiative, a large central health agency called Santé Québec, is not trusted by anyone to improve service or access to doctors.
“In their daily lives,” writes soft-nationalist commentator Josée Legault in the Journal de Montréal, Quebecers “are at the end of their tether with a health system which, instead of improving, is deteriorating.”
“If a real change of direction does not occur on this crucial issue, whether or not the federalist-sovereigntist debate returns, there will be no forgiveness in the voting booth.”
Today, given these and other policy shortfalls, the CAQ is viewed as ineffective. It looks like a new Union Nationale, a regional, patriarchal, top-down party losing touch with social trends.
Can the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) now challenge the CAQ?
“Any new leader of the PLQ who is the least bit presentable would pose an additional danger to [the CAQ] on the electoral front,” concludes Ms. Legault. And this, despite what she described as “the historic debacle of the Couillard-Barrette duo” during the 2014-2018 Liberal reign.
Commentators like Legault seldom mention Québec Solidaire in the same breath, although its poll numbers are similar to Liberals. They view it as an eternal third party limited to student and gentrifying areas of the larger cities. Quebecers like its idealism, but have not voted in large numbers for the brand.
Predictions galore
So what will happen in the 2026 election? Nobody knows. Political consensus is often wrong.
A decade ago, Quebec media were unanimous: the 2014 election was the PQ’s to lose. One top writer at La Presse, Lysiane Gagnon, published a guest column in the Globe and Mail titled: “PQ Has Reason to Be Confident”. Gagnon basically foresaw an easy victory for Pauline Marois’ PQ and another defeat for the hapless, post-Charest Liberals.
My political intuitions told me this was quite wrong.
So I published a comment in the Globe pointing out that in British Columbia just a few months earlier, the media had been similarly unanimous that the NDP would win — and yet it was crushed by the Liberals in a huge upset. Conclusion: “It ain’t over till it’s over.”
Indeed, the Liberals in Quebec surged back to power in 2014 with a new majority.
Fast-forward to 2024. The Parti Québécois has moved ahead in most polls. Many voters may be “parking” their votes there, as the nationalist CAQ steadily declines. In April this year, l’Actualité magazine published a poll by Pallas Data showing the PQ in first place, but with the resurgent Liberals moving into second, ahead of the CAQ.
Few polls have repeated this result, but it is credible: Quebec Liberals thrive when sovereignty becomes an issue. Despite its aura, independence is not a winning option with mainstream Quebec voters; it has stagnated in polls for decades.
In a three-way race, the Liberals might slip up the middle. The Montreal media would again be stunned.
Slow to relaunch
After the Liberals’ humiliating defeat in October 2022, they proceeded slowly toward a relaunch. Many voters asked: Where are they — in hiding? Callers deluged Anglo talk radio with complaints about their absence.
Finally, in mid-2023 dates were set for an official leadership race to be held between January and June 2025, leading to a Liberal convention.
Some contrarians argued that the steady-as-she-goes Liberals might be on the right track.
“With the next [Quebec] election on the distant horizon, the decision to hold off selecting a new leader might not be such a bad idea after all,” wrote former MNA Robert Libman in The Gazette, in September 2023. “Timing in politics, as it relates to election cycles (momentum, peaking too soon, political honeymoons) is a critical consideration that must be managed skilfully to maximize chances of winning.”
This go-slow strategy is largely the work of André Pratte, president of the political commission of the PLQ and former editor of La Presse. A serious man, Pratte quit his plum post as a federal Senator: “I was fed up with partisanship in all its forms, which continues to derail debates,” he wrote. Instead, he is carefully preparing a Liberal programme to govern again.
Pratte, in an interview with Radio-Canada in May 2024, described his role as trying to “rebuild, find our values, create an alternative”. He said Quebec Liberals need to stress individual freedoms, along with a commitment to Canada and to economic liberalism.
As for identity politics, Pratte told The Gazette in 2023: “Liberal nationalism is not the same as the identity nationalism of the CAQ or PQ. The nationalism of the Liberals is to make Quebec’s interests in the Canadian federation a priority.”
“We are convinced that there are many more Liberals in Quebec than the ones who voted for the party in 2022.”
Can slow and steady win the race? While parties rise and fall unpredictably in Quebec, Pratte’s wager suddenly has decent odds.
Originally published in the Townships Weekend supplement of the Sherbrooke Record, Sept. 6, 2024.
