Quebec voters have a clear history of rejecting sovereigntist PQ, but challengers like Milliard need a clear message.
One month remains before the October 5th Quebec election and, at the time of writing, it is still (sort of) a three-way race. What will happen during the next weeks of campaigning in September?
This looks like a political columnist’s Mission: Impossible – to forecast volatile election odds a month ahead of the vote. (In fact, I was summoned to The Record‘’s space-age editorial HQ on the edge of Lennoxville and, under its quickly lowered Cone of Silence, instructed to “get the story” of what will happen on Oct. 5th — impossible or not!)
So, here we go. My key belief: Boomer media folk tend to overestimate the Parti Québécois. They always feel that the PQ has a deep reservoir of voting power … somewhere out there. In the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, arguably it did.
But what about in the 21st century? The Liberals under Jean Charest ousted the PQ back in 2003. Since then, the PQ has been in power for a total of just 18 months, or 6.5 per cent of all governing time. It was a minority government once (2012-2014), then was kicked out. The PQ’s recent poll numbers started rising in 2023, but only in reaction to the stumbling Legault government — and in the absence of strong opposition parties.
Two-way races
My conclusion: the PQ is not particularly popular outside its hardcore 25-30 per cent electoral base. That is still a lot of voters, but not enough to win elections in a two-way contest. And that is what I expect the 2026 race to become in September.
We saw this dynamic with Quebec voters in the federal races of 2011 and 2015, when francophone Canadians eager for an alternative to Stephen Harper’s Conservatives stampeded into the arms of a single opposition party, leaving the others behind.
The NDP came out of nowhere in 2011 with an Orange Wave in Quebec after voters here veered like a school of fish in their direction, leaving the federal Liberals behind. Then in 2015, Tom Mulcair’s NDP, which looked to be the opposition frontrunner, bungled their opportunity following Mulcair’s awkward policy stances. Justin Trudeau quickly moved into the passing lane to create another two-party race.
In 2026 any two-way race in Quebec will heavily favour the CAQ or the provincial Liberals, given the lead balloon of the PQ’s referendum commitment The broader Quebec voting public may steadily grasp the risks inherent in a destabilizing government, especially during a trade war. And voter fatigue could eventually catch up with the (mis-)governing CAQ. Such a shift might emerge at an unexpected moment in TV debates or public exchanges.
Tom Mulcair, now a columnist and broadcast pundit, has very confidently taken the side of the CAQ in this two-party dynamic. He thinks Christine Fréchette can quickly overcome the CAQ’s bad image and remain the top alternative to the PQ. Mulcair clearly dislikes the Liberals’ choice of Charles Milliard, the Townships resident he has disparaged throughout his two leadership campaigns and now into the provincial election.
So, batter up! Who do I think will establish themselves as the PQ dragonslayers in 2026? Unlike Mulcair, I leaned early to the Liberals, without being insistent about it. Their weakness in the francophone vote was often noted, but they are also the most regular governing party in Quebec history for a reason: they can appeal to almost everyone outside the PQ.
Premier Fréchette has ridden the anti-tariffs wave and supported PM Carney, making her a “change” choice.
Commentators are often wrong, but Mulcair in July picked Frechette to take lead in 2026 race.
Pundits need to be asked about their track record. Well, here’s mine: On referendums, it is a split decision: I got the 1980 referendum right but guessed wrong in 1995. As for Quebec elections, I have been most proud of a contrarian take in 2014.
In 1980 I often kibbitzed with a great friend, an American at McGill with a sharp mind for politics. He was quite impressed by the dynamics of the PQ and its referendum campaign and confidently wagered they would win it. I guessed it would be 60-40 for the Non.
Later, I enjoyed getting him to pay up with a goulash meal at the Hungarian Club on St. Laurent Blvd., which was the stakes in our bet.
By contrast, in October 1995, I watched with satisfaction as the Non vote appeared to come in roughly as expected, until about …. 8:30 p.m. That is, early results were still about 56-44 for the Non. Then, powered by an unexpected but relentless surge, the Oui vote climbed steadily to 45, 46, 47 then, after 10 p.m., up to 48 and 49 per cent, in an historic squeaker.
I certainly did not foresee that tight result — but then, nobody else did, either.
More pertinently, in 2014 the Quebec election pitted the Liberals against the governing PQ. I did not think the Pauline Marois regime was particularly popular and felt it might do poorly. This led to lonely blog posts and letters to the editor. Few others were convinced.
Meanwhile, the Montreal media take in 2014 was unanimous: the PQ was rolling to victory. Star columnist Lysiane Gagnon at the Globe and Mail had already by February 10 called the April election. In a column memorably headlined “PQ Has Reason to Be Confident”, Gagnon foresaw a sure victory for the Parti Québécois and yet-another humiliation for the hapless Liberals. Her Globe colleague Konrad Yakabuski went further, predicting Premier Marois’ star recruit, Pierre-Karl Péladeau, could turn out to be the “new Lucien Bouchard”, a fiery successor carrying on the sovereignty torch.
—Oops.
Instead, PKP blew up that entire campaign by impetuously raising a clenched fist. This signalled to mainstream Quebec voters that a relaunch of the referendum wars was imminent. Gong! The PQ was KO’d. The Liberals won big.
Given all the above, predicting the 2026 results with any certainty remains a mission: impossible. But Quebec voters want a change without risks. Bet on that.
Originally published in the Sherbrooke Record, Sept 4, 2026
